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2008 China economy and business forecasting and hotspot (2)
From;  Author:Stand originally
News introduction: Try to be mixed from macroscopical face industrial face, chinese economy mixed draw the outline of 2008 commercial likelihood prospect. Offerred pair of China economy from main area " 8 big question " ; Face what wait for 6 large trades at finance, telegraphic, landed, civil aviaton, car, Internet to go from the market situation made forecast. . . . Can asset value bubble deny burst?

Look from the rate of M2 of amount of broad sense money and GDP of Gross National Product, in last few years M2/GDP keeps taller all the time add fast, monetary supply adds GDP of fast prep above fast. The money puts in a quantity to add fast one of tall reasons are the fundamental money passivity that foreign currency occupies a paragraph to bring about puts in. Announce with the Central Bank in June 2007 the numerical value of the M2 of the portion 3.7783215E17, foreign exchange reserve is one thousand three hundred and thirty-two billion six hundred and twenty-five million dollar first half of the year, even if is calculated with the rate of 7.5, the fundamental money that foreign currency takes a paragraph to bring about puts in those who take total money supply 26% strong. Accordingly, monetary liquidity is excess it is to bring about asset value to rise to be added with CPI fast too fast immediate cause.

With respect to stock market, aggregate index achieves the card on October 16, 2007 the history is the 6124 bits most exalted, the individual will open an account in June number broke through 100 million, total market prise holds GDP proportion from 2005 end 17.4% rise to November 2007 end 94.5%(total market prise amounts to 19.9 trillion yuan of) . Besides stock market, to August the corresponding period of price of countrywide average house rose in January 2007 13.4% , the foreign capital dimensions that flowed into estate to develop the market to September in January 2007 amounts to 5.6 billion dollar, the corresponding period grew 62.3% .

City of Shanghai security market is filled with rate (PER) amounts to 33 times, exceeded new York or Tokyo (20 times) , initiated asset bubble debate.

Big city estate hires carry out taller (Guangzhou 800, shanghai 400, beijing 350. Hire carry out to compare prep above 300, mean house property to invest value opposite decrescent) , occurrence bubble phenomenon.

Nevertheless, possibility of cracked of asset value bubble is not large. After November 2007, stock market will begin to enter adjust period, index of the card on December 6 closes with 5035 bits of newspapers, dropped than apogee 17.8% ; In the meantime, because limitative foreign trader invests and estate market restrains a room to borrow wait for relevant policy to begin to produce effect, go up will put delay gradually. The credit specified number that the country issued the person that limit room of the 2nd illegally buy up in September 2007, raise loan interest rate, carry out the expropriation of property tax likely still 2008.

If asset price fall, can increase banking risk, cause a society to resent, look from the footing of Chinese government, answer to pay attention to the stability of the market more. Favorable balance of trade of a huge sum, foreign trader invests the afflux of capital, make liquidity excess be able to maintain continuously; And as go into town of population increase and income rise, people also is continueing to rise to the demand of high-grade residence. These elements can reduce possibility of cracked of asset value bubble.
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